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Eurocope

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I recently attended the excellent Kilkenomics festival in Kilkenny, Ireland. If you ever get the chance to go, I recommend it. Putting comedians and economists on the same stage doesn’t sound like it makes sense, but it’s surprisingly effective; they balance each other out quite well. And Ireland is a wonderful country, of course.

But I did notice one thing at the festival that made me a little sad. Since I’m American, the festival organizers stuck me on two panels about the United States — one about the economy, the other about Trump and politics. All throughout those panels, the comedians made jokes at America’s expense — how Americans don’t have health care, how everyone is poor, how guns and violence are everywhere, and so on. The crowd ate it up. But whereas in the past this would have felt like friendly teasing, now it felt strained and a little desperate.

Europeans have good reason to be mad at the United States right now. Donald Trump has scaled back U.S. aid to Ukraine, cut military aid to the Baltic states, expressed friendship and sympathy for Russia, and in general has done lots of things to indicate that the transatlantic alliance isn’t as firm as it used to be. Trump has slapped tariffs on Europe for no good reason, and has threatened much worse. And Trump’s vice president and other MAGA figures have demonstrated an unhealthy obsession with European immigration.

After all of that, it’s natural for Europeans to want to fire back. And compared to what Trump is doing, jokes about American health care and guns are pretty weak tea.

But at the same time, this catechism of America’s supposed problems often feels like a type of cope — a way that Europeans can avoid confronting their region’s own challenges by telling themselves that “Well, America is worse!”. In fact, I often encounter this same list of criticisms on Twitter, and in casual conversation with Europeans. It includes the following claims:

  • Americans don’t have health care

  • America is a poverty-ridden, deeply unequal country with no social safety net

  • American politics is dominated by rich plutocrats

  • Americans are uneducated

  • America is full of guns and violence

One problem with this litany is that most of it isn’t true; some of these problems were always exaggerated, and many of them have been effectively addressed since the 1990s. But a bigger problem is that these criticisms are deeply pointless. Even if all of these things were true, it wouldn’t reduce Europe’s need to address its own deep-seated set of problems.

America and Europe are actually very similar

On Twitter or other social media, commentary about national strengths and weaknesses almost always takes the form of head-to-head comparisons. The question isn’t “How can America and Europe solve their problems?”, it’s “Which is better, America or Europe?”. This rapidly becomes a zero-sum game, with each country’s partisans trying to win bragging rights by proving that the other is doing worse.

If you were starting from scratch and picking a system to emulate, this kind of head-to-head comparison might make sense. For example, in the Cold War, lots of newly decolonized countries had to pick which system to emulate, American-style capitalism or USSR-style communism.

But those days are over. First of all, almost every country on Earth already has its basic legal and institutional arrangements in place. But more fundamentally, there’s just not that much difference between the European and American systems. Both are basically capitalist economies, with fairly high levels of taxation, robust social safety nets, and fairly efficient public services.

For example, a lot of people think America doesn’t do a lot of social spending. That’s wrong. The U.S. is similar on this scale to the Netherlands or the UK:

America’s fiscal system is also highly redistributive. Fisher-Post and Gethin (2025) estimated tax progressivity — the amount that the government’s tax and transfer system redistributes income — and they found that the U.S. is about as progressive as Europe:

The U.S. also has a reputation for being a lot friendlier to business and capitalism than Europe. But measures of “economic freedom” tend to put the U.S. at about the same level as North European countries like Germany or Sweden. Here are some numbers from the World Bank in 2019:

Source: Noah Smith

And what differences do exist between the American and European systems are often due more to historical accident and institutional path-dependence than to any deep difference in philosophies about how economies ought to be run. European countries do not consider themselves “socialist”, as some Americans would like to believe. Nor are their governmental systems very different; many European countries have presidents.

I’m not saying Europe and America are exactly the same; there are some important differences, and we’ll talk about these in a bit. But the bigger point is that these are broadly similar systems; whether you chose to build your country on the “American model” or the “European model”, it would end up looking pretty similar.

Eurocope is deeply pointless

It’s not useless to contrast European policies and institutions with American ones. But thinking of Europe versus America in terms of a zero-sum competition is an activity with extremely limited utility, and plenty of downsides.

The most obvious point here is that even in the age of Trump, Europe and America are allies. If the U.S. does poorly, this will ultimately make Europe poorer and less secure. So when Europeans crow “Haha, look how bad America is!”, whether true or false, it’s what the kids call a “self-own” — they’re simply bragging about things about which they ought to be apprehensive. (Naturally this also applies to Americans who brag about “Europoors” and such.)

Even more fundamentally, pointing out America’s shortcomings — even if they’re real — doesn’t do anything to help Europe solve its own problems.

Every country and region in the world has challenges and shortcomings. Europe is no exception. Back in August, the Wall Street Journal had an article summarizing some of Europe’s woes, entitled “Europe is Losing”. Some key excerpts:

[T]oday Europe, particularly Western Europe, finds itself adrift, an aging continent slowly losing economic, military and diplomatic clout…The continent’s economies have been largely stagnant for about 15 years, likely the longest such streak since the Industrial Revolution, according to calculations by Deutsche Bank. Germany’s economy is 1% bigger than it was at the end of 2017, while the U.S. economy has grown 19%…Europe’s proportion of the global economy is now likely the lowest since the Middle Ages, according to the Maddison Project…

In the past 15 years, a key engine of European growth—manufactured exports—has been hobbled by events beyond its control, including U.S.-led trade wars, China’s mercantilist policies and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent European energy prices skyrocketing…But Europe’s lack of economic dynamism has deeper roots, too. Taxes and regulations have risen inexorably; the volume of EU regulations has doubled since 2010. Sprawling rules protect old buildings, incumbent firms and aging consumers, limiting the creation of new infrastructure and industries…

Red tape in Britain is so bad that it took electricity firm Scottish Power 12 years to get permits for a high-voltage transmission line across Scotland. A project to build a new tunnel under the Thames river outside London has so far spent $340 million just on planning permits—documents that total 359,000 pages. Games Workshop, a fast-growing gaming company, is facing delays to build a new parking lot on its headquarters because a single bat lives there…

Energy is another problem. In Germany, industrial electricity costs three times as much as in the U.S.; in the U.K., four times as much. Britons now consume less electricity per person than the Chinese, and Germany’s overall electricity consumption is lower than it was before the Berlin Wall fell. Yet Germany has banned nuclear energy, and the U.K. has scrapped new offshore oil and gas exploration. Policymakers across Europe have laid out ambitious renewable energy plans…But the transition is proving painful…

Europe’s economic slide has been accompanied by shriveling military prowess. The continent’s share of the world’s military power is also at its lowest since the Middle Ages, after decades of focusing on welfare spending instead of defense. Though European leaders are now vowing to take defense more seriously in the face of a revanchist Russia, they are struggling to build up their forces.

Basically, Europe’s problems include:

  • Stagnating living standards

  • The Russian military threat

  • Expensive energy

  • Overregulation that makes it hard to build anything

  • Structural fiscal deficits

These problems tend to compound each other. Stagnating GDP makes it hard to fund Europe’s welfare states and pensions, and also to defend against Russia. Expensive energy makes European industry uncompetitive, which makes it hard for Europe to build the energy infrastructure that would bring costs down again. And so on.

On paper, Europe is committed to building green energy and electrifying its economy — both to power its industries and sustain its living standards, and also to fight climate change. But in practice, the region’s anti-development regulations and broken grid interconnection system are preventing the transition. The Financial Times reports:

Electrification has been stuck stubbornly at about 22 to 23 per cent of final energy use for more than five years, according to industry body Eurelectric. That’s roughly the same as the US but means that Europe has been rapidly overtaken by China, which is approaching a 30 per cent share…

Instead of abundant cheap, renewable power, energy costs are still between two and five times higher in Europe than in the US or China. European industry is flailing in response…

One of the main barriers to electrification in Europe is energy taxation…According to Eurostat, taxes on electricity have…increased faster than those on gas in recent years...Another challenge is the lack of incentive to improve the grids…The commission is working on new rules with the aim of speeding up permitting and grid connections (such is the backlog that in the Netherlands — often a canary in the coal mine for EU issues — some will only get grid connections in the mid-2030s)…[F]ragmented national concerns and slow efforts to rollout interconnectors between states have hindered progress [on a unified energy market]…Other challenges [include] the cost of solar installations, which are roughly four to six times higher in the EU than, say, Australia[.]

Europe’s expensive energy and overregulation have also made it completely incapable of meeting the competitive challenge from Chinese manufactured exports, which are beginning to hollow out Europe’s traditional industries. Germany used to make a bunch of money exporting industrial machinery to fuel China’s rapid industrialization; now, with Germany’s competitiveness imploding and China subsidizing its industries, the flow has reversed:

Source: FT via Kyle Chan

That’s only one example. There are many more:

Germany’s industrial backbone is facing an unprecedented challenge. Once the leader in high-end manufacturing, the country has witnessed a five-year decline in industrial production, which threatens up to 5.5 million jobs and 20% of gross domestic product (GDP), according to a recent report by the London-based Centre for European Reform (CER)

The speed at which China has caught up with Germany is perhaps most evident in the auto industry. German carmakers have been criticized for a lack of innovation, a slow transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and not predicting fierce competition from Chinese brands like SAIC Motor and BYD. Those issues have led to threats of tens of thousands of layoffs and domestic plant closures…

Chinese chemical giants, for example, have significantly increased their output in recent years…[driving] down the profit margins of German producers like BASF…Even in the European Union…China grew its share of chemicals exports in the decade to 2023 by 60%, while Germany’s share fell by more than 14%…

Germany’s mechanical engineering sector…is also facing stiff competition from Chinese rivals. While Germany’s market share of industrial machinery exports declined slightly to 15.2% from 2013 to 2023, China’s share grew by more than half (from 14.3% to 22.1%).

If Germany can no longer compete with Chinese industry, what hope does the rest of Europe have?

This is all the more frustrating because China is vanquishing Europe in industries in which Europe should have a fundamental comparative advantage. Europe’s long-standing and deep concern for the climate, and its determination to switch to green energy, should make it a leader in producing batteries, solar panels, and electric vehicles — except China reigns supreme in all three industries, and Europe is primarily a consumer, writing China IOUs in exchange for shipments of green technology.

Bashing America will not help Europe solve any of these issues. Pointing out the fact that America has higher inequality than Europe will not help Germany build a single electric car. Decrying U.S. gun violence will not bring down British electricity prices by one penny. Taunting America over the chaos of its politics will not let France install a single air conditioner.

Focusing on these things will only serve as a distraction — a way for Europeans to rally a tiny scrap of civilization pride, even as the fundamental basis for that pride erodes out from under them. It is, in short, a cope. And it is not helpful.

And it’s especially unhelpful because there are some cases — not all, but a few — in which becoming a little more like America would actually help Europe solve some of its problems. No, putting guns on the streets and electing Trump-like leaders would not be a good idea. Privatizing health care wouldn’t be a good idea.

But in order to build new industries — battery and drone industries to fight Russia, an EV industry to be independent from China, a space industry to be independent of SpaceX — Europe will have to loosen its regulations around things like factory construction, mining, mineral refining, hiring and firing, and so on. That might exacerbate inequality at the top of society, because it would allow a few entrepreneurs to get very rich building these new industries. And it could lead to increased carbon emissions in the short term, before the green energy buildout gets big enough.

Those things would make Europe a little more like the U.S. in certain uncomfortable ways. If Europeans insist on continuing to buck up their spirits by painting a lurid picture of America as a plutocratic hyper-capitalist hellhole, it could make them avoid some very sensible and necessary policies.

So anyway, even if Eurocope were totally right about America, it would be counterproductive for Europeans to keep pointing the finger across the Atlantic whenever anyone suggests that Europe itself has grave challenges. But in addition, Eurocope is broadly wrong about America — or at least massively exaggerated in most areas.

Eurocope is out of date

My general sense is that Eurocope draws its mental image of America from the 1990s and 2000s — and especially from the Bush era, when tensions between Europe and the U.S. ran high over the Iraq War. But in the decades since Europeans formed their stereotypes of America, much has changed.

For one thing, most Americans now have health insurance. Elderly Americans were always covered by Medicare, but since the passage of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) in 2009, most other Americans have insurance too:

Source: KFF

This improvement basically came from giving people a way to buy insurance that didn’t involve getting a corporate job.

And among the remaining uninsured, most are young people, who tend to need insurance much less. In other words, some percent of America’s remaining uninsured people are choosing to voluntarily forego insurance, despite universal availability and significant subsidies thanks to Obamacare.1

Nor are Americans paying a ton of out-of-pocket expenses for their health care. They used to, but thanks to policy changes, these days they no longer do. In fact, these days, Americans pay a lower percent of their health care costs than British or Swedish people:

The U.S. does have lower life expectancy than Europe, but this is primarily a function of obesity and drug/alcohol abuse; ironically, Americans’ higher purchasing power allows them to consume more unhealthy stuff that kills them. It is not a function of the relative quality of the American health care system.

To be clear, the U.S. health system is still worse than Europe’s in many regards. As the Commonwealth Fund’s international comparison shows, America ranks near the top in the quality of service, but lags badly in access, equity, and administrative efficiency. The U.S. has plenty more health reforms to do before its system rivals the best in the world on all fronts. But it’s simply not true that Americans “don’t have health care”.

As for America being a hyper-capitalist country that leaves its poor people to rot in the cold, that has not been true for a very long time. In recent years, America has gotten a lot less laissez-faire. With the shift of the tax burden to the rich, and the expansion of social services for the poor and working class — SNAP, various health care programs, the EITC and CTC, Section 8 housing assistance, and so on — America has become much more progressive since 1990. This is from a study by Lindert (2017):

In fact, some recent studies go farther. Blanchet et al. (2022) find:

Contrary to a widespread view, we demonstrate that Europe’s lower inequality levels cannot be explained by more equalizing tax and transfer systems. After accounting for indirect taxes and in-kind transfers, the US redistributes a greater share of national income to low-income groups than any European country.

As you can see from the chart earlier in this post, America spends a lot more on social welfare than it used to. The reason America still has higher inequality than Europe is mostly due to “predistribution” — basically, pretax wage inequality — rather than a reduced willingness to provide for the poor or redistribute from the rich.

Other Eurocope tropes have never really been true. America’s education system takes a lot of flak, but on international comparisons Americans generally do just fine. On the PISA test — generally considered the best international test — White and Asian Americans clobber their European counterparts, while Hispanic Americans do about as well as Israelis and Black Americans do about as well as Romanians or Ukrainians:

Source: Cremieux

That’s a picture of a very unequal education system, but overall a very effective one. Americans are not dumb.

Nor is the U.S. plutocratic oligarchy. That should be more than apparent from the way businesses have been impotent to stop Trump’s tariff rampage. But also, there’s evidence showing that middle-class Americans tend to get their way in politics (contrary to one high-profile study that got thrown around a lot in the 2010s but turned out to have serious flaws).

Not all Eurocope tropes are false, of course. America is a very violent, high-crime nation compared to European countries. The U.S. is much more unequal. Americans work more, and have much worse public transit.

But many of the standard Eurocope beliefs are simply no longer accurate. In the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, Americans realized we had problems with poverty and patchy health insurance, and we acted to address those problems — even though doing so was politically tortuous.

Europe would be well-advised to do the same. Countries are always more effective when they focus on self-improvement over comparisons with rivals. Europe has a lot of work to do in order to dig themselves out of their hole of economic stagnation and military weakness. It’s time to stop making excuses and get started.


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In a true insurance system, this would cause a problem, because the exit of healthy people from the risk pool would raise premiums for everyone else until the system collapsed from adverse selection. Under Obamacare, however, government subsidies make up for reduced “subsidies” from healthy young people paying into the system. Health insurance isn’t really insurance in the traditional sense.

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Tales from Toddlerhood

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Back in 2023, I wrote a post about having my first baby and all the things that confused me about doing so.

Earlier this year, it happened again. Just like that, I was back here:

On one hand, now time doesn’t exist at all.

On the other hand, the second child is…easier than the first.

But I’m not here to talk about the new baby, delightful and obese as she may be. Today, I report to you from the depths of toddler parenthood. I always thought two-year-olds were basically unconscious blobs with a cold, but it turns out they’re actual people you can get to know. Having now spent some time cohabitating with one, I’ve made the following discoveries:

1) You can be simultaneously completely obsessed with and dramatically bored by the same person.

Sometimes when I’m working in my office, my daughter will toddle in, run over to me, and give me a hug. It is by far the best part of my day. Her smile fills me with utter joy. Her little voice is sent straight from heaven. I feel the purest possible love for her.

It’s just that I also find her groundbreakingly boring. A five-minute hangout is one thing, but when I’m deep in an afternoon with her, it’s hard to come to any other conclusion than that I’ve spent my last three hours with a person whose IQ is 20.

2) Toddlers are dicks.

It’s well-known that toddlers transform into mid-20th-century totalitarian dictators at the drop of a hat.

But they’re dicks in less obvious ways too. The other day, my toddler was playing with Legos. I sat down next to her and asked her what she was building, and she said, “Daddy needs to work in his office?”—an unsubtle hint that I should leave her the fuck alone.

Or the times I cook a whole thing for her with care and love and she refuses to take a bite, making me feel cluey for myself.

Most recently, I made the mistake of telling her my age, and now she says “Daddy is 43” like 30 times a day, constantly filling me with existential dread.

3) No one wants to see videos of someone else’s toddler.

Toddler parenthood is a reality distortion zone that makes it hard to remember that most people find your toddler breathtakingly uninteresting.1

Friends who have kids the same age as yours are kind of in a cohort together, so parents of toddlers often end up with a whole throng of toddlers in their lives. Amongst my cohort I’ve both been an offender and frequent victim of toddler-video-showing. It’s part of the tax we all pay.2

I try to at least minimize the fallout from my end.

4) Someone else’s toddler can ruin your week.

5) Toddlers are geniuses who are also very dumb.

If I took my daughter to China for a year, and we just lived there with no language instruction, I’d come back knowing approximately six Mandarin words and she’d be fluent. It makes no sense to me that toddlers just learn a language by hearing the language, but somehow they do. They’re weird freak geniuses. But then she says stuff like “would you like a strawberry?” when she wants a strawberry, because when we say “you,” it refers to her, so she now thinks “you” is a synonym for her name, which is very unimpressive.

Likewise, the other day I read her a new book for the first time, and then the second time I read it to her, she stopped me in the middle to correct something I said. It turns out I had accidentally skipped a word, which she knew because she somehow memorized the whole book on the first read. But then we’ll pick up another book and she’ll stare at the page for a million years looking for where Curious George is “hiding” even though he’s obviously right the fuck there.

6) Toddlers have a highly inaccurate worldview.

We sometimes take our toddler to story time at the library, where the librarian reads a book to a bunch of kids. The first time we took her, she decided to take matters into her own hands and, mid-story, went and sat in the librarian’s lap. The issue is that she hadn’t quite figured out that the world does not exist entirely for her benefit.

It’s understandable. You’re born into the world and for the first few years, everyone you see smiles and waves at you, so you overestimate your importance. Only slowly do you learn what’s really happening.3

This is part of the broader phenomenon of a toddler not really having any idea what’s going on. They don’t know about death, or money, or history, or sex, or the Big Bang, or basically anything about reality. They just emerged out of nowhere and started being, which for some reason doesn’t strike them as weird or confusing.

(A good “do you have any idea what’s going on?” litmus test is: If you’re walking down the street and an elephant flies down from the sky, hovers ten feet above you and says hello in a silly cartoon voice before flying off, would you be like “OH MY GOD WHAT JUST HAPPENED” or would you shrug and be like “I guess that’s something that happens”? If the latter, you have no idea what’s going on. Most two-year-olds fail this test.)

7) Toddlers are both the funniest and least funny possible people.

My daughter is remarkably unfunny. Once when she dropped something, I said “kerplunk,” and she found it fucking hilarious. For the next ten minutes, she kept picking things up, dropping them, and saying “kerplunk,” hysterically laughing each time.

But unintentionally, she’s a comedic genius. When I was in her way recently, she said, “Can you get out of space?” which my wife and I now say to each other whenever we want the other to move. Another time, we had to rip a band-aid off her leg, after which she said, “I am so perfectly sad,” and now my wife and I say that anytime we’re unhappy about something.4

We’ve also discovered an amazing hack: you can just teach a toddler to say whatever you want. We taught her to say “mamma mia” whenever she falls over, which I highly recommend to other toddler parents.

8) Toddler parents have very strong opinions and everyone is very judgy.

The problem is, for every strong opinion, there’s an equally strong opposite opinion.

I’ve taken to accepting that I’m messing up all kinds of things, and mainly just try to have fun with my little friend. To the extent that I have a strategy, it’s basically:

  • Spend lots of (phone-free) time with her
  • Show her that the world is a fun and fascinating place
  • Encourage her to reason from first principles
  • Don’t interrupt her when she’s focused or daydreaming; help her learn to be entertained by her own mind
  • Refrain from imposing lots of little rules, but where there are rules, be firm about them
  • Build problem-solving confidence, teaching her to become a person who says “I want to figure out the directions” instead of a person who says “let’s just ask someone”

Toddler parents can take solace in the fact that parenting probably matters less than we think it does. Rather than try to shape our little two-foot-tall companions, we should help guide them to become the best version of who they already are.

Anyway, gotta go. Time to read Squeak the Mouse Likes His House for the 57th time.

___________

More tales from fatherhood: 10 Thoughts from the Fourth Trimester

My favorite toddler books: Flotsam, Little Fur Family, The Giant Jam Sandwich, Little Owl’s Night

If you’d rather read about something other than my fat babies:

The Marriage Decision: Everything Forever or Nothing Ever Again

Taming the Mammoth: Why You Should Stop Caring What Other People Think

Why I’m Always Late

_______

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To support Wait But Why, visit our Patreon page.


  1. Toddler grandparents may be an exception, though they span a wide range, from “Please go away for a month and leave them with me” on one end, to “I will play with them for five minutes but only because it looks bad if I don’t” on the other. Those on the latter end are as bored by toddler videos as everyone else.

  2. There’s a range here. A short, high-quality video of a good friend’s toddler, sent by text (so you can watch on your own time and don’t have to react the whole time) is fine—nice even. A person you barely know showing you a long toddler video, in person, is a nightmare.

  3. Some have suggested that the common desire for fame is, in some subconscious sense, an attempt to recapture the long-lost feeling that the whole world knows and loves you.

  4. She actually said “Can I get out of space?” and “You are so perfectly sad” because, again, she is confused about pronouns.

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